January 23, 6:30 pm ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Buffalo- 3 Seed (AFC East) 12-6 overall
Kansas City- 2 Seed (AFC West) 13-5 overall
Why Buffalo will win-
Buffalo comes in off a 30 point dismantling of the Patriots last week with QB Josh Allen throwing a team playoff record 5 touchdown passes. The Bills scored 38 points and had 436 yards of total offense in the 18 point win at Kansas City in October and will look to duplicate that performance again this week. While the offense has been rolling the defense has played a major role in Bills current 5 game winning streak holding their opponents to under 20 points in 4 of those 5. The unit intercepted Mac Jones twice last week and held the Patriots RB duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to 57 yards on 17 carries.
Why Kansas City will win-
The Chiefs are a different team than they were back in October. The defense is much improved led by veteran Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo due in large part to creating more turnovers. After a slow start last week against the Steelers the offense found its rhythm with QB Patrick Mahomes tossing 5 TD’s and 404 yards passing. Mahomes will be eager to erase his 2 interception performance against the Bills in the first meeting. The Chiefs will get RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire back after missing 3 games with a shoulder injury.
Key to the Game-
Takeaways. Both defenses are near the top of the league in forcing turnovers. Kansas City’s defense was tied for 19th in the NFL in takeaways during their 3-4 start to the year. Since then they have climbed to 5th in the league in takeaways per game at 1.7. The Bills forced 4 turnovers in the 38-20 Week 5 win.
Eye Test Analytics Predicted Score- Kansas City by 1.38 points