NCAA Baseball Championship Top Over/Undervalued Seeds

*Stats Courtesy of NCAA

For ratings of all 307 D-1 schools visit eyetestanalytics.com/ncaa-baseball.

1.  Auburn- (Undervalued) Against the nation’s toughest schedule 10th year Head Coach Butch Thompson’s (321-230-1) team posted a top 50 national ranking in team batting average, home runs per game, team ERA, and strikeouts per game.  In non-conference play they went 2-0 against the ACC regular season champion Georgia Tech, while also notching a win over 8th overall seed Oregon State.  A three-game sweep of LSU along with a series win over top seeded Vanderbilt highlighted SEC play.  The Tigers struggled on the road going 7-11 but were went 25-6 at home and 6-1 at neutral sites making a trip to Omaha and beyond certainly within the realm of possibility.     

2.  Georgia Tech- (Undervalued) The Yellow Jackets were arguably the biggest snub by the selection committee after failing to earn a top 16 see despite winning 40 games and taking the ACC regular season title.  Add in legendary Head Coach Danny Hall (1,243-647-1 in 32 seasons) calling it quits at the conclusion of this season and there is no shortage of motivation heading into the regional play.  Other than lack of speed on the base paths this team doesn’t possess many glaring weaknesses.  The lineup has plenty of pop ranking 13th nationally in team average and 40th in home runs per game while the pitching is above average in just about every statistical category. 

3.  Coastal Carolina- (Overvalued) The Chanticleers, under first year Head Coach Kevin Schnall, enter regional play winners of 18 straight while sharing the lead with Northeastern for the most wins nationally at 48.  They posted a 15-9 record against quad 1/2 opponents that included wins over 2 national seeds in Clemson and Southern Miss but 33 of their wins came against quad 3/4 opponents.  The pitching staff has been elite ranking in the top 5 nationally in both ERA and walks allowed.  Offensively, however, there remain some question marks ranking 201st in hits per game (9.07) while also ranking outside the top 170 in both home runs per game and walks drawn.  It will be put to the test against 3 quality staffs in East Carolina, Fairfield, and Florida.

4. Dallas Baptist- (Undervalued) Despite winning 40 games and posting a 15-11 record against Quad 1/2 teams the Patriots enter the NCAA Championship with plenty to prove after dropping two straight games to Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Tournament Semifinals.  They also lost 7-3 to host LSU back in late February. This is a well balanced team featuring a lineup with plenty of power (17th nationally in home runs per game) to compliment a solid pitching staff that finished 16th in strikeouts along with the nation’s 8th best fielding percentage.  Dan Heefner (692-342-1) is one of college baseball’s underappreciated Head Coaches reaching 11 straight Regionals along with 2 Super Regional appearances in 2011 and 2021.

5. Arizona State- (Undervalued) The Sun Devils quietly put together a solid season winning 35 games and finishing just 2 games back of Kansas and West Virginia in the Big 12 standings in Head Coach Willie Bloomquist’s 4th season in Tucson.  They finished just 9-15 against quad 1/2 opponents but defeated the majority of the weaker opponents on the schedule relatively easy.   Offensively they have the potential to light up the scoreboard on any given night ranking 27th in runs per game and 10th in hits per game and on defense they boast a top 15 fielding percentage at .980.  Having played UCLA in Los Angeles back in February and splitting the short 2 game series should give the team an added level of confidence and familiarity entering Friday’s regional play.