San Diego State vs UConn Preview
When- Monday April 3, 8:20 PM CBS
Where- NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
San Diego State- (Mountain West)
Eye Test Analytics Ranking- 3
Strength of Schedule- 4
UConn- (Big East)
Eye Test Analytics Ranking- 13
Strength Of Schedule- 30
Why San Diego State will win- UConn has struggled to limit turnovers on the offensive end. They have averaged 12.5 turnovers per game in the tournament and had 14 in their 72-59 win over Miami Saturday night. The Huskies enter the Championship Game ranked 233rd in turnovers per possession on the year which is 180 spots above the average ranking of the past 10 Champions going back to 2012. The Aztecs are big underdogs heading into Monday night’s matchup which should take some of the pressure off while playing in its' first National Championship in school history.
Why UConn will win- The Huskies defense has been lights out in the NCAA Tournament holding another one of the nation’s best offenses in Miami to under 60 points. That could spell trouble for San Diego State offense which ranks 224th in FG% and 177th in points per game. On offense, the Huskies have averaged 80 points per game while shooting just under 50% from the field. If they are anywhere near those numbers in the Championship Game it’s hard to imagine the Aztecs offense finding a way to keep pace. While San Diego State isn’t a bad free throw shooting team if the game is close late the edge definitely goes to UConn at the line.
Key to the Game- Three-point shooting. San Diego State’s defense ranks third in the nation in opponent three-point shooting at 28.2%. UConn’s offense, on the other hand, has shot 40% (50/124) from beyond the arc so far in tournament. The Aztecs held top seeded Alabama to just 3 of 27 three-point shooting and will need a similar effort Monday night to keep the game close late where they have thrived all season.
Eye Test Analytics Predicted Outcome- San Diego State by 1.48 points