When- Monday January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
Where- Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
*FBS ranking in parenthesis
Texas (Big 12)
Record- (12-1)
Strength of Schedule- (3)
Rating- 88.24 (3)
Points Scored Per Game- 36.2 (16)
Rush Yards Per Game- 189.1 (23)
Sacks Allowed Per Game- 2 (62)
Pass Yards Per Game- 286.8 (18)
Points Allowed Per Game- 17.5 (12)
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game- 80.8 (3)
Sacks Per Game- 2.46 (36)
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game- 240.8 (93)
Penalty Yards Per Game- 51.15 (63)
Net Yards Per Punt- 40.97 (24)
Turnover Margin- .54 (22)
Washington (Pac 12)
Record- (13-0)
Strength of Schedule- (5)
Rating- 78.68 (9)
Points Scored Per Game- 37.7 (10)
Rush Yards Per Game- 125.2 (98)
Sacks Allowed Per Game- .85 (4)
Pass Yards Per Game- 343.8 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game- 23.6 (49)
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game- 133.8 (38)
Sacks Per Game- 1.46 (120)
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game- 263.2 (120)
Penalty Yards Per Game- 73.85 (129)
Net Yards Per Punt- 39.47 (45)
Turnover Margin- .08 (61)
Why Texas will win- Defense still wins championships in College Football. The past 9 champions have had an average national ranking of 10 in points allowed and only LSU in 2019-20 ranked outside the top 30. Washington enters Monday’s matchup ranking 120th out of 133 FBS schools in both sacks per game and pass yards allowed per game while ranking 51 in points allowed. QB Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns 18th ranked passing attack (286.8 ypg) should rack up plenty of yards against a vulnerable Huskies’ secondary.
Why Washington will win- This may be an ideal matchup for QB Michael Penix Jr. and the offense. The strength of the Texas defense is stopping the run, however, the secondary has had its’ issues ranking 93rd in FBS while allowing over 300 yards thru the air in 4 out of the final 7 games. This should play right into the hands of Penix and the nation’s top passing attack which averages 343.8 yards per game.
Key to the Game- Washington’s run game vs Texas’ run defense. Junior RB Dillon Johnson, who battled injuries early in the season, rushed for 152 yards and 2 TD’s on 28 carries against Oregon’s 10 ranked run defense in their 34-31 Pac 12 Championship victory. Johnson, who came on strong to end the year rushing for over 100 yards in 3 of the last 5 games along with 8 TD’s, will need a similar performance against the stout Longhorn front which held opponents to just 80.8 rush yards per game (3rd in FBS)
Projected Outcome- Texas by 9.56 points